What stage is the US and other countries in the business cycle? Very different results for managed portfolios vs. do-it-yourself investors. The happiness equation is helpful: Happiness ≥ Perception – Expectations. An “inverted” yield curve often precedes a recession… how about this time? 10-year birthday of the post-Global Financial Crisis “bull” stock market. Hot Q1 offsets a weak Q4 stock market. What can the Periodic Table of Returns teach you? Projected returns are up slightly… and that should encourage avoiding excessive risk-taking.