Uncategorized

The economic repercussions from the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which began with strikes on February 28, were broad-based and quickly transmitted through global commodity markets. Disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows, drove a sharp increase in energy prices. Brent crude [Read More]

The fourth quarter closed a year defined by shifting policy signals and unexpectedly resilient markets. While fiscal negotiations, central bank actions, and uneven global growth shaped the macro backdrop, risk assets generally extended gains, closing out a volatile year on a constructive note. As the year ended, investors were left balancing strong performance against [Read More]

Cut, Shut, and Rally 3Q25 was marked by the intersection of policy and markets. A government shutdown capped the quarter after partisan gridlock over spending priorities, while the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in nine months. Equities extended their rally on the back of resilient earnings and an unusually strong September, a [Read More]

Tariffs, Tax Cuts, and “TACO”: What a Quarter!  2Q25 was marked by heightened policy uncertainty in the U.S., with debates over fiscal sustainability, aggressive trade measures, and growing pressure on monetary policy shaping market sentiment. Nevertheless, the market staged an astounding comeback, which played out against a complex policy backdrop highlighted by a U.S. [Read More]

First 100 Days 1Q25 was anything but typical. The early months of President Trump’s second term delivered sweeping policy changes that heightened uncertainty across financial markets. From federal spending cuts to an aggressive shift in trade policy, the administration’s “shock-and-awe” approach generated volatility across asset classes, sent inflation expectations higher, and provoked a sharp [Read More]

Macroeconomic Environment Donald Trump’s election as the 47th president of the United States, along with a Republican sweep in Congress, set the tone for 4Q24. Despite mixed fourth quarter results driven by shifting monetary policies and fiscal uncertainties, 2024 concluded with strong annual returns supported by a resilient U.S. economy, advancements in artificial intelligence [Read More]

Macroeconomic Environment The markets were stellar in 3Q24, generating strong returns across asset classes and reflecting a positive outlook that strength remains in the economy despite signs of cooling. The Fed’s move to ease monetary policy to help the economy navigate a soft landing was no surprise, but the size of the move was [Read More]

Politics Upstage Economic News Global broad market performance was lackluster in 2Q24 (MSCI ACWI: +2.9%; Equal-weighted S&P 500: -2.6%; Bloomberg Global Aggregate: -1.1%). Economic news was also mostly humdrum. The economy continued to chug along; 2Q real GDP growth is expected to be around 2% annualized. The labor market remained resilient, inflation trended down [Read More]

Macroeconomic Environment While it may feel like we are in a “higher forever” world with respect to stock prices or interest rates, we know this scenario is implausible, if not impossible. Amid a backdrop of low volatility mixed with investor enthusiasm (especially around anything to do with artificial intelligence) and better-than-expected economic news, the [Read More]

Macroeconomic Environment The most widely predicted recession in recent history did not materialize in 2023. In late 2022, 85% of economists polled by the Financial Times predicted a recession in 2023. Consumers were also gloomy, affected by post-pandemic blues and worries over rising inflation, especially gas and food prices, and stagnating wages. In 1Q23, [Read More]