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Macroeconomic Environment Donald Trump’s election as the 47th president of the United States, along with a Republican sweep in Congress, set the tone for 4Q24. Despite mixed fourth quarter results driven by shifting monetary policies and fiscal uncertainties, 2024 concluded with strong annual returns supported by a resilient U.S. economy, advancements in artificial intelligence [Read More]

Macroeconomic Environment The markets were stellar in 3Q24, generating strong returns across asset classes and reflecting a positive outlook that strength remains in the economy despite signs of cooling. The Fed’s move to ease monetary policy to help the economy navigate a soft landing was no surprise, but the size of the move was [Read More]

Politics Upstage Economic News Global broad market performance was lackluster in 2Q24 (MSCI ACWI: +2.9%; Equal-weighted S&P 500: -2.6%; Bloomberg Global Aggregate: -1.1%). Economic news was also mostly humdrum. The economy continued to chug along; 2Q real GDP growth is expected to be around 2% annualized. The labor market remained resilient, inflation trended down [Read More]

Macroeconomic Environment While it may feel like we are in a “higher forever” world with respect to stock prices or interest rates, we know this scenario is implausible, if not impossible. Amid a backdrop of low volatility mixed with investor enthusiasm (especially around anything to do with artificial intelligence) and better-than-expected economic news, the [Read More]

Macroeconomic Environment The most widely predicted recession in recent history did not materialize in 2023. In late 2022, 85% of economists polled by the Financial Times predicted a recession in 2023. Consumers were also gloomy, affected by post-pandemic blues and worries over rising inflation, especially gas and food prices, and stagnating wages. In 1Q23, [Read More]